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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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